CCDA-III call for abstracts

Abstract
Western highlands and Eastern plateaus of Uganda are some of the exposed regions to climate change and weather events. Agro – Climate study was conducted in Western and Eastern Uganda to observe the changes in the climate variability during 30 years (1980 – 2010) and their impact on agricultural productivity and environment. The annual mean temperature showed increasing trend by 0.067oC/year and rainfall pattern showed decreasing trend of –0.042mm/year for Kasese District respectively. On the other hand Soroti district, the annual mean temperature and annual rainfall showed increasing trends by 0.040oC/year and 0.048mm/year. Using agricultural production data (1992 – 2000) it was observed that total cultivated area and production of banana, Finger millet and maize in Metric tones and rainfall showed increasing trend in this period for Kasese district. For Soroti it was also observed that for total cultivated area and production of Maize, Potatoes, Cassava, rice and groundnuts in Metric tones there was increasing trend. There was a significant impact of temperature and rainfall on agricultural crops in the study areas. To reduce the negative impacts of climate change on agriculture and environment Uganda as one of the Members of the United Nations Framework Convention to Climate Change should practice the Kyoto Protocol mechanisms Clean Development mechanism projects. Major Climatic variables, drought and floods management and adaptation strategies should be taken properly.

Libya is one of the third world countries. Its location on the heart of North Africa and south of the Mediterranean gives it a geographical advantage to be the closest oil producer state to Europe. The country has variety of energy sources; traditional and renewable. However, the main sources are crude oil and natural gas.
Furthermore, Libya is a Non-Annex I country under the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCC) and is a signatory to the Kyoto protocol. However, research on climate change is very rare and environmental studies of the country are very limited.
This makes it is very difficult for both, the Libyan national policy makers and international oil companies to ensure that climate changes will not impact or threat the energy industries in the country and consequently will affect the Libyan economy which heavily dependent on oil production.
This work highlights the current energy situation and statistics in Libya. Also it focuses on some climate graphs and analysis of mean monthly temperature and rainfall parameters for selected Libyan meteorological stations to test any climate variability or trends and discuss these parameters behavior and climate change scenarios in Libya.
Finally, the paper contributes with some recommendations which may improve the strategic policies for environment, energy sectors and the meteorological services in Libya.

Abstract
Likely changes in mean and extreme precipitation in Africa in response to enhanced radiative forcing are investigated using an ensemble of Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) global climate models (GCMs) forced by the Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 4.5. The low resolution GCMs have been interpolated to a common higher resolution (T581 spectral resolution, approximately 25km) using a bilinear interpolation scheme. Only results for southern and East Africa will be presented. Extreme seasonal precipitation is defined in terms of 10-year return levels obtained by inverting a Generalized Extreme Value (GEV) model fitted to block maxima of daily precipitation during the rainy seasons. Both present (historical) and future climate precipitation extremes are estimated. The future to historical climate ratio of 10-year return levels is then used as an indicator for the likely changes in extreme seasonal precipitation.
Over the western parts of southern Africa, close to the Kalahari and Namib deserts, an increase in the severity of dry extremes parallels a statistically significant decrease in mean precipitation during austral summer months. A likelihood of greater aridity and an expansion of the desert area are implied by our findings. Over the southeastern parts bordering and close to the Agulhas system in the southwest Indian Ocean, there are some indications of a likely increase in mean precipitation although there is a notable intermodel spread. In some models, the 10-year excessive rainfall events are projected to become more intense. However, confidence in the projected changes in the 10-year wettest events is hampered by the inability of the low resolution models to adequately capture west Indian Ocean tropical cyclone activity. 
East Africa is projected to become wetter. Mean precipitation is projected to increase during both the short rains (October – December) and the long-rains (March – May) seasons. The likelihood of flooding is projected to increase while droughts are likely to become less frequent implying a positive shift in the entire rainfall distribution over much of East Africa. This is consistent with earlier findings using the previous generation of climate models (i.e. CMIP3). During the short-rains, where the ocean-atmosphere coupling has been shown to be stronger, the simulated wet conditions over East Africa are associated with differential warming over the Indian Ocean at low latitudes. The pattern features higher warming rates over the western Indian Ocean close to East Africa relative to the eastern Indian Ocean close to the Maritime Continent. This pattern of sea surface temperature warming favours an increased probability of positive Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) events in the future climate.
Changes in surface water availability are estimated by comparing the projected precipitation changes with changes in surface evaporation simulated by the CMIP5 ensemble. Over southwestern Africa, in the ensemble mean, the difference (P- E) is projected to decrease in the future implying that evaporation will increase at a faster rate than precipitation, conditions that are favorable for increased aridity. Over a large part of East Africa, the projected precipitation increase will likely outpace that of evaporation (i.e. P-E will increase). An exception to this general pattern of an increase in terrestrial water is southern Sudan.