Seven Issues Africa is Watching Out for at Lima COP20

LIMA, Peru 2 December, 2014 (ClimDev-Africa) - Thirteen months to the deadline for signing a new global pact on curbing greenhouse gas emissions, the meeting of nearly 200 governments in Lima, Peru for a major UN climate change summit must produce the first draft of a global deal to cut emissions, and steer the course for a binding global commitment on carbon emissions in Paris 2015. Lima 2014 must pave the way to a historic pact in Paris 2015 that will, for the first time, apply to 195 nations, both rich and poor.

Lima is the last phase of a decade-long series of negotiations expected to culminate in the adoption of a new agreement in Paris 2015 to replace the landmark climate change Kyoto Protocol of 1997. The expectation  is that Lima 2014 should deliver the first draft for the Paris 2015 climate deal;  an agreement that is open, transparent and inclusive so that confidence could be restored to a process that many in Africa and elsewhere now see as little more than occasions for endless testing of creative ambiguities.

However, negotiators face a tough task ironing out long-standing differences over how to share responsibility for curbing global warming. The sore point – whether rich countries should have tougher targets because of their longer history of burning fossil fuels – is among other technicalities to be resolved, including the legal nature of the pact and how it will be monitored and enforced. Developed nations reject the notion, and point the finger in turn at fast-growing emerging giants like China and India. Africa’s commitment to combat climate change has informed the broader realization for a global compact, and underscores the need to bring together the global community to shape the sort of response needed to tackle a global crisis that connects all of humanity together into a collective destiny born of our shared atmosphere and planet. To this end, Africa must negotiate and ask key questions on at least 10 essential issues at COP20.

(1) The Durban Platform: For Mr. Tosi Mpanu Mpanu, former Chair of the African Group of Negotiators, most of the discussions in Lima will focus on  the interpretation – and even misinterpretation – of decision 1/CP.19 which "requests the Ad Hoc Working Group on the Durban Platform to further elaborate, beginning at its first session in 2014, elements for a draft negotiating text" (mitigation, adaptation, finance, technology development and transfer, capacity-building and transparency of action and support) and "to identify, by the twentieth session of the Conference of the Parties, the information that Parties will provide when putting forward their contributions, without prejudice to the legal nature of the contributions".

This begs the question:  how many African countries will be ready to identify information that they will provide at the time of putting forward their contributions. Mpanu Mpanu notes, and rightly so, that Decision 1/CP.19 “urges and requests developed country Parties, the operating entities of the financial mechanism and any other organizations in a position to do so to provide support for the preparation" of countries’ contributions.

In this regard, observers are keen to recall that in Warsaw, parties agreed to initiate or intensify preparations of their "intended nationally determined contributions” in the context of adopting the post-2020 agreement in Paris.  Preparing these contributions is a significant undertaking as they should cover mitigation, adaptation as well as needs relating to finance, technology transfer and capacity building.  

To support developing countries, the developed countries, under the Convention, are required to cover the full incremental costs to developing countries of reporting information under the Convention (per Article 4.3 and 12.1).

Matthew Stilwell, founder and managing director of the Governance for Sustainable Development Programme at the Bren School, maintains that by Lima 2014, developed countries should be making preparations to provide systematic financial support to African countries to assist in the preparation of their intended nationally determined contributions (INDCs).  African countries, in turn, should initiate their domestic processes to begin identifying their INDCs in time for the Paris COP. The practical modalities of this process are an issue that African ministers present in Lima should strive to address.

(2) Principles of the Convention: On the principles of the convention, especially with regards to equity and historical responsibility (common but differentiated responsibilities, CBDR), which has been a contentious issue, Africa insists on respective capabilities as a pre-requisite to Paris.  For example, the African Group has emphasized that any post-2020 climate agreement is “under the Convention” and shall strengthen the “multilateral rules-based regime” and consequently, the principles of the Convention, including equity and CBDR, which must be respected and implemented.  

There is concern however that some parties, principally from the Annex I Countries, are seeking to reinterpret these principles and apply them in a manner that would fundamentally alter the current balance of rights and obligations under the Convention – for example, by dispensing with the Convention’s annexes defining developed and developing countries, or by imposing new obligations on developing countries to finance themselves. Maintaining the principles of the Convention, and strengthening the multilateral rules-based system, is therefore a priority for Paris, from the African perspective. 

(3)  Intended Nationally Determined Contributions (INDCs):  Again, Decision 1/CP.19 states that  "in the context of its determination to adopt a protocol, another legal instrument or an agreed outcome with legal force under the Convention applicable to all Parties at its twenty-first session (December 2015) and for it to come into effect and be implemented from 2020".

Put in context, INDCs are intended as contributions to the new legal agreement in Paris – contributions, in other words, are likely to form the basis of new legally binding commitments.  African countries must therefore understand that the development of their INDCs is a political as well as a technical task and must be undertaken with a full understanding of the negotiations.  

(4) Ad hoc Working Group on the Durban Platform: Africa should bear in mind that there is a need to have a draft text in December 2015. The legal obligation is to table a negotiating text in May 2015 at the latest, 6 months prior to COP21 because, under the Convention a legal text must be circulated to all parties at least six months before a proposed amendment (Article 15.2) or protocol to the Convention (Article 17.2) is adopted.  At the COP in Doha, parties agreed that the Ad hoc Working Group on the Durban Platform (ADP) should “consider elements of a draft negotiating text no later than its session” in Lima.  

It is interesting to note that despite this mandate the Co-Chairs have limited discussions about the elements of the post-2020 agreement in a non-binding Co-Chair’s “non-paper” – an in-session document issued informally to facilitate negotiations – while seeking to advance discussions around INDCs.  The INDC text, in turn, seems to focus heavily on mitigation and would leave inclusion of other elements (adaptation, finance, technology and capacity) which are key priorities for Africa at the discretion of parties.  

There is concern that this will lead to an unbalanced, mitigation-centric post-2020 agreement that ignores or downplays many of Africa’s key concerns.  The Lima COP must address this anomaly by ensuring that all parties re-commit to the Durban Platform’s agreement that all issues will be covered in the post-2020 agreement. 

Decision 1/CP.19 also "invites all Parties to initiate or intensify domestic preparations for their intended nationally determined contributions … and to communicate them well in advance of COP21 (by the first quarter of 2015 by those Parties ready to do so) in a manner that facilitates the clarity, transparency and understanding of the intended contributions".

Despite this provision, it is unlikely that many African countries will be in a position to communicate INDCs by the first quarter of 2015.  As agreed in Warsaw, support is required for many countries and developed countries have been urged to provide financial resources to developing countries.  Lima could help deliver this financial support for the preparation of INDCs which should be channeled through African institutions such as ClimDev-Africa to ensure the process is nationally determined.  

It is absolutely necessary for Africa to prioritize which elements and issues to conclude in any future Paris Agreement and which ones to finalize afterwards. In negotiations, Matthew Stilwell from the African Climate Policy Centre (ACPC), Economic Commission for Africa, warns, “nothing is agreed until everything is agreed – at least in terms of the politically important elements”.

Hence, Africa should ensure that all elements agreed in the Durban Platform are reflected in the legally binding agreement adopted in Paris. This means ensuring parity for adaptation, finance, technology and capacity building and ensuring the agreement is not narrowly focused on mitigation to the exclusion of other issues.  All elements must be part of the legally binding agreement.

Once this is settled, then certain technical issues such as rules relating to Measurable, Reportable and Verifiable, accounting etc. can be further elaborated through COP decisions in the pre-2020 period. Parties will also need to continue negotiating regarding the INDCs (which initially will be inadequate to limit warming to below 2C or 1.5C) both to scale up mitigation target benchmarks , and to ensure effective “matching” of mitigation actions in developing countries, and financial, technological and capacity resources from developed countries.  A WTO-style “request and offer” process will likely be necessary to help close the gap” before the post-2020 agreement enters into force. 

“Lima is an important lever and precursor to the New Post-2015 Climate Change Agreement that Africa expects to deliver legally binding and ambitious mitigation targets as well as sufficient commitments of funds to the GCF and other instruments of climate finance.  Africa is ready and we expect Lima to provide a clear mechanism to realizing these expectations in Paris next year-2015”, according to Mr. Ken Johm, Coordinator for Special Initiatives in the Agriculture and Agro-industry department at the African Development Bank (AfDB). 

(5) Kyoto, Marrakech in view: It is absolutely important for Africa that some aspects of the 1997 Kyoto Protocol and the 2001 Marrakech Accords feature in the post-2015 agreement. Even though the scope of the post-2020 agreement is still unclear, the African Group has said it should cover at least seven  areas, including (i) Definitions, to minimise ambiguity; (ii) Preamble, covering context and legal basis; (iii) General aggregate commitments, including global objectives and mechanisms to enable fair and adequate contributions; (iv) Specific commitments by Parties, in line with their Convention obligations on mitigation, adaptation, finance, technology, capacity and transparency; (v) Operational mechanisms’ contribution to delivering on general and specific commitments; (vi) Provisions on accountability, compliance and review; and (vii) Other matters including adoption, entry into force, reservations and option.

There is a strong tendency, however, to narrow the focus of the agreement to mitigation which would mean a more limited range of options.  This outcome may be secured in Lima through an “early harvest” on mitigation prefigured by the current Co-Chair’s text, with parties given discretion whether to include other aspects.  

Africa ought to beware  that if parties (for example, developed countries) are given discretion to determine the scope of their INDCs and they determine not to offer any on adaptation, finance, technology or capacity building, then it will be difficult to achieve a comprehensive and balanced post-2020 agreement. 

(6) Ambition in adaptation: The African Group of Negotiators is calling for greater synergy in adaptation, mitigation and climate finance. It is worth noting that the proposals on adaptation and a global renewable energy support programme are complementary but distinct.  The adaptation goal is part of the broader position on adaptation in the context of the post-2020 agreement.  It recognises that all countries must be responsible for securing global outcomes regarding adaptation and that the level of adaptation must be calibrated to the level of warming (and associated mitigation ambition).  

The renewable energy proposal is a means by which parties can cooperate to get down the costs of renewable energy, and to increase deployment, which has the multiple benefits of displacing fossil fuels, addressing energy poverty, improving community ownership of energy systems, creating jobs and employment and cutting greenhouse gas emissions. There is substantial interest in the latter proposal at the UNFCCC and it is hoped that Lima can give it a boost. 

(7) The China, US factor:  Lima is going to be different from previous COPs at which most Parties often arrive with a confrontational mindset pitting the developed against developing countries. Within the last two months, President Obama has made three announcements which could alter the mood at COP20.

Last October he urged the UN at a conference on climate change in New York to forge a new climate agreement that is “ambitious, inclusive and flexible before it’s too late". This November, he announced, together with China, that China and the United States – the two largest emitters of GHGs, together accounting for approximately 36% of global emissions – now intend to limit their greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. Following on that, he made a USD 3 billion pledge to the Green Climate Fund (a mechanism to transfer money from the developed to the developing world).

The United States and China intend their pledges to become part of the major new multilateral agreement on climate change to be completed in Paris in late 2015. Pundits predict that given the example they have set, it is likely that their bilateral agreement will spur more ambitious mitigation contributions to the Paris agreement by other countries than would otherwise have been the case. Negotiators from both developed and developing countries would certainly have to factor these new developments into their notes for Lima. 

Nevertheless, despite the public euphoria with which all the developments have been welcomed, some negotiators have been more cautious.  Some analysts think that if other countries followed the US and China’s pledges (developed countries following the US, and developing countries following China, with the EU staying with their 40% cut by 2030) the prospects of limiting warming to below 2C by 2100 would be just over 1%.  

Clearly this is not a desirable outcome for Africa.  “I am personally quite cautious about accepting the public narrative about the United States’ effort when in fact they have been a major driving force behind abandonment of the Kyoto Protocol and the move by developed countries into a weaker climate regime (for them) than was negotiated in 1997” Stilwell points out.  

Lima 2014 might not be exactly a holiday for negotiators from developing countries, after all.

(Issued by ClimDev-Africa)