COMMENTARY

The tide is turning

In many ways, 2014 is the ‘high stakes’ year that will define whether we sink or swim amidst rising temperatures, cataclysmic unseasonable weather events, and existential threats to humanity. This is evident from the official announcements made in June by the U.S. and China – the world’s worst greenhouse gas emitters – that they plan to reduce their CO2 emissions (China plan to cap CO2 emissions seen turning point in climate talks). Adding to that, the successful UN Climate Summit that was held last month in New York is sending a strong signal that is reviving a degree of optimism in the ongoing global climate negotiations in advance of CoP20 in Lima, Peru in December 2014.

In all this, is the tide turning for the so often marginalized Small Island Developing States (SIDS)? So it seems. At the frontlines of climate change, the SIDS are particularly vulnerable to extreme weather events and rising sea levels. Last year, ECA Executive Secretary, Carlos Lopes, highlighted the plight of the 52 SIDS, in particular those in and around Africa, in his speech Small is Beautiful: African Small Island Developing States and Climate Change. The side-event organized by ECA at the Third SIDS Summit which took place in Apia, Samoa, in early September 2014, presented the case of how African SIDS can turn climate challenges into opportunities. The New York Climate Summit has seen nations committing to climate action and finance in support of resilience and adaptation efforts, especially in SIDS and other vulnerable regions of the world.  

Telling the story of African SIDS

In a number of ways, Africa’s SIDS effectively subsidize the global cost of managing climate change, and yet their story is only now being told. Africa’s six SIDS span the continent– Cape Verde, Guinea Bissau and São Tomé and Principe in the Atlantic Ocean and Comoros, Mauritius and Seychelles in the Indian Ocean. Despite their considerable geographic and socio-economic diversity, African SIDS face similar constraints in tackling climate change challenges, owing primarily to their relatively weak capacity for adaptation. Their coastlines are among the most densely populated in the world – second only to the Pacific region -while their GDP per capita rank the second lowest of all SIDS.

In the run-up to Paris CoP21 in 2015, African SIDS are more than ever determined to come out of the dark and make their voices and concerns heard by the international community. Refusing to remain on the sidelines, they are taking the lead in climate action. At the global level, they are taking a strong and proactive stance on climate change issues. They are joining forces with other SIDS with the aim of influencing global climate change negotiations and outcomes. They are putting forward innovative climate financing mechanisms, such as the debt-for-adaptation swap initiative advocated for by Seychelles to fund conservation programmes (SIDS unsustainable debt levels make it difficult for them to address climate change, says President Michel). At the national level, they are mainstreaming climate considerations in development policies, strategies and programs, and supporting the adoption of clean and climate smart technologies.

They are resolute in their push to develop ‘Blue Economies’ as their pathway to sustainable development. The ‘Blue Economy’  is a variant of the Green Economy which seeks to promote “improved human well-being and social equity, while significantly reducing environmental risks and ecological scarcities”. The concept offers a sustainable approach to development that acknowledges the specificities of SIDS. It goes one step further by recognizing the importance of preservation, protection and management of marine and coastal resources for their development. In promoting the ‘Blue Economy’, African SIDS have stepped up their efforts to develop the blue sectors, placing greater emphasis on the fishing, the aquaculture, the tourism, and the shipping and transport industries.

It is in light of this growing importance of the economic potential that the Blue Economy constitutes, and cognisant of the need to better support African SIDS in developing marine resources, that the Economic Commission for Africa (ECA) is working closely with partners institutions such as the African Union and the African Development Bank as part of the Climate for Development in Africa (ClimDev-Africa) Initiative to support African SIDS. Consequently, two reports have been produced by ECA as a precursor to the support that will be provided by ECA to African SIDS in their effort towards promoting healthy ocean ecosystems and developing their blue and green economy potential.  The report entitled “Climate Change in the African Small Island Developing States: From Vulnerability to Resilience – The Paradox of the Small” scans specific challenges that African SIDS face due to a myriad of biophysical processes and climate extremes, such as sea level rise,  floods, and changing rainfall patterns.  The report highlights a number of opportunities both in the blue and green economies that can be seized to optimize marine resources and further develop oceans as the purveyor of critical sustainable development for African SIDS. The other report produced by ECA through its African Climate Policy Centre is entitled: “Unlocking full potentials of the Blue Economy: Are African SIDS ready to embrace the opportunities”? The report documents the importance of the oceans as the lifeline of economic development in SIDS, and identifies ways in which these SIDS can move towards sustained environmentally sound growth.

Clean Energy is Critical             

African SIDS have made clean energy one of their top priorities, not least because the cost of fuel imports absorb more than 30% of their foreign exchange earnings. A number of renewable energy projects have been developed – among them Cape Verde’s Cabeólica wind power project (Cabeólica Cape Verde Wind Farm), the ‘La Ferme Bambous’ photovoltaic plant in Mauritius (ABB inverters in Mauritius' first megawatt-scale PV plant), and the Port Victoria wind farm in the Seychelles (Port Victoria Wind Power Project). These projects provide tangible proof of how well-crafted policy combined with strategic public-private and South-South partnerships can help turn climate challenges into opportunities.

Other sectors are also experiencing similar success, albeit to a lesser extent. For instance, the tourism industry, a major driver of economic growth in many African SIDS, is expanding to new niches such as cruise and marine archeology tourism in Seychelles, and dive and sport fishing tourism in Mauritius. The aquaculture sector is also taking off with shrimp and pearl farming in Seychelles, and the launching of fresh-water prawn and fish farming projects in Mauritius.

The Weak Link

Despite the clear commitment to turn climate change to their advantage, African SIDS lack the capacities to pro-actively prevent, prepare for and manage climate-related disasters. Investing in preparedness and early warning systems can save millions of dollars down the line, not to mention precious lives. As the UNDP Administrator, Helen Clark, effectively put it, for “every dollar spent in disaster preparedness and mitigation, sevendollars will be saved when disaster strikes” (UNDP Administrator Outlines Long-Term Development View).

The recent launch of the Global Framework for Climate Services for SIDS (GFCS-SIDS) by the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) (WMO calls for greater investments in weather and climate services in Small Island Developing States) is one example of efforts to bridge this capacity gap. The GFCS-SIDS serves as a platform for collaboration to develop reliable weather and climate services, with a particular focus on strengthening the capacity of SIDS in data collection, as well as in the use and exchange of generated information. This platform is particularly relevant for African SIDS, whose efforts are hampered by severe financial and human constraints. Integrating evidence-based weather and climate information into their policy planning would enable them to further insulate themselves for the effects of climate change, to provide a coordinated response in disaster situations, to reduce the human and economic costs of such disasters and to boost their resilience to climate change. 

Drawing on the experiences of the Caribbean SIDS, African SIDS should raise their level of preparedness by providing disaster prevention and management training to their population (Opinion: Boosting Resilience in the Caribbean Countries). They should also leverage the high level of mobile penetration in African SIDS to rollout preparedness and evacuation programs. Additionally, they should plan ahead by building sea walls, moving infrastructure to higher grounds to avoid inundation of low-lying areas as in the case Seychelles, and evenpreparing for the worst in order to accommodate climate refugees.

The Samoa SIDS Summit underscored the importance of science as it “holds the key to the future of SIDS” in their efforts to address climate change and build a sustainable future (Earth Negotiations Bulletin). For the SIDS to harness the challenges of climate change, they require enhanced scientific and technical understanding, investment in better data and science, and a stronger science and policy interface for adequate planning of climate adaptation and resilience efforts and the reduction of disaster risks. They should also take into account indigenous ocean and maritime knowledge in order to effectively identify ‘Blue Economy’ opportunities.

Financial Conundrum

Financing remains a perennial challenge, made all the more acute by the international community’s seeming inability to meet its aid commitments. As highlighted by the 2014 Africa Progress Report[Pd1] (Grain, Fish, Money: Financing Africa’s Green and Blue Revolutions), less than USD 700 million has been allocated to financing Africa’s climate adaptation efforts, a level far below than the initial pledges of USD 100 billion at Copenhagen in 2009in support of climate projects[Pd2] . This huge shortfall in climate funds risks to seriously compromise African SIDS current and future climate-related efforts. What are then the solutions to this financial conundrum?

A host of initiatives are currently underway to finance climate adaptation projects, mostly in the energy sector. The SIDS DOCK, a joint partnership between the Alliance of Small Island States, the World Bank and the United Nations Development Program, is currently funding renewable energy initiatives across the African SIDS (What is SIDS DOCK?). The goal is to assist African SIDS transition to a low-emission, climate-resilient development model. Another initiative is the SIDS Lighthouse initiative of the International Renewable energy Agency (IRENA), which seeks to support the systematic transition to renewable energy (IRENA initiatives against Climate Change Receive Widespread Support). ThisInitiative is one of the two renewable energy initiatives to receive strong financial backing at the UN Climate Summit in New York (Extensive Renewable Energy Projects in Africa and Small Island Developing States to Cut CO2 Emissions, Improve Energy Access).

However, these initiatives are far from adequate. We need to look for more innovative solutions the financing gap. Some of the solutions will inevitably involve help from outside Africa, such as the new US-Africa partnership which promises to unleash the potential of the ‘Blue Economy’ (Blue economy can help expand US-Africa partnership, says Seychelles Foreign Affairs Minister). However, we increasingly need to make headway with home-grown solutions such as the ‘blue carbon’ projects as advocated by African SIDS in the ECA produced reports cited above, and the possibility of mobilizing climate financing from domestic and international private sources (Financing for Development and Climate Change Post-2015).

One of the key successes of the New York Climate Summit is in mobilizing fresh sources of climate finance (Historic Climate Summit Opens New Chapter in Global Efforts to Tackle Climate Change). In Ban Ki-Moon’s words, ‘The Summit has delivered’. New coalitions have seen the light of the day in the fight against climate change. Public and private sources have coalesced to mobilize over $200 billion to finance low-carbon and climate-resilient development (Catalyzing Action at the September 2014 Climate Summit). The Green Climate Fund is starting to take shape with pledges from developed countries, among which France’s ($1 billion) and Germany’s ($1 billion) promises are the most notable (3 Key Take-Aways from This Week’s UN Climate Summit). Pressure is mounting to help the most vulnerable, and especially the SIDS, and this kind of international mobilization might be just what the SIDS need to solve the financial conundrum.

Human factor

A central element to all climate adaptation and mitigation initiatives is the human factor. African SIDS should ensure that their climate-smart development programs hinge on the promotion of equity and inclusiveness. African SIDS should address the issues of poverty and inequality, and ensure the equitable distribution of the Blue Economy dividends. Failing this, they will not be able to build the social capital that no amount of adaptation can fix in the event of a disaster. Seychelles provides a good example on the importance of good social capital to weather and adapt to climate change (Sleeping with the enemy – if we don’t learn to live with the enemy we are doomed). Finally, African SIDS should seek to involve their local communities in climate projects and capitalize on their indigenous knowledge and know-how to better harness and manage the potential of their coastal and marine resources. 

Sealing the Deal

As the world inches closer to defining and rolling out the post-2015 development architecture, there is an urgent need to reflect on how to frame an inclusive, climate-smart development vision and goals for African SIDS. There is a high degree of consensus on the importance of integrating climate change into the post-2015 development framework. However, the jury is still out on how best to integrate climate considerations (Integrating Climate Change in the Post-2015 Development Agenda). One school of thought is insisting that we need climate-specific goals and accompanying indicators in the post-2015 SDGs themselves. Others argue that climate should be dealt with in the agreement expected from Paris in 2015. There are merits to both sets of arguments. However, the reality is that time is running out!

The countdown has begun and the momentum towards action is building up. The next important milestone is the negotiations in Lima in December 2014, and thereafter the Paris Climate Summit next year – two months after the post-2015 development agreement. The New York Climate Summit has fuelled many hopes of a possible climate agreement by 2015, with a first draft to be presented at the Lima Summit (After the Summit, planners look toward Lima, then Paris) There is no better time than now for the African SIDS to keep the momentum alive, refine their positions, garner support, and forge robust alliances. The tide is turning. The collective voice of Africa’s SIDS is being heard and it is our hope that urgent actions will result to secure their future.